When is it going to get warmer?
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Published
Sunday was warm in western areas of the United Kingdom, and Northern Ireland had its warmest day of the year so far with 19.3C in Castlederg.
However, that was in stark contrast to eastern areas of the UK around the North Sea coasts where the temperature did not get into double figures.
The week ahead will be chilly for all of us with temperatures below average.
It might turn warmer into May, but we may have to wait longer for spring-like weather.
Why is it so cold?
Over the weekend we saw a large area of high pressure move towards the UK. While there was some rain, on the whole it brought a lot of dry weather with some sunshine.
The problem, however, was the position of this area of high pressure.
Stalling to the west of the UK, it allowed a northerly flow of air to come down across central and eastern parts.
With the wind coming in from the Arctic and the cold North Sea, temperatures were stuck in single figures.
It reached only 6.4C in Inverbervie, Aberdeenshire on Sunday afternoon.
Further west, closer to the centre of high pressure, the winds were lighter and with the increasingly strong April sunshine, it was almost 13 degrees warmer in Northern Ireland.
The warmer weather in Northern Ireland and Scotland on Monday will not last, however.
We keep a broadly northerly airflow throughout the week.
Therefore, it will be chilly with temperatures around three to six degrees below the average for late April.
While there will be some rain at times, it will be mostly dry.
Statistics tell a different story
While it has felt chilly, the statistics for the first half of April actually show that it has been warm.
According to the longest running set of weather records in the world – the Central England Temperature – the maximum temperature has been 2.5C above the average.
Our overnight or minimum temperature has been even more anomalous at 3.6C above the average during the first half of April.
We perhaps have not noticed the lack of cold and frosty nights compared to how it has felt at times during the day.
Between the colder feeling days we must not also forget we have had the odd warmer moment too with the warmest days of the year so far for England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
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England – 21.8C in Writtle on 12 April
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Wales – 20.4 C in Cardiff on 12 April
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Scotland – 19.9C in Achfary on 28 January
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Northern Ireland – 19.3C in Castlederg on 21 April
When will it turn warmer?
At the end of this week we will start to see some areas of low pressure moving in from the south-west.
While this will bring a return of rain for some of us, the winds will also switch to a milder south-westerly direction.
This means that into next week and the start of May we might see temperatures come up to around the average of 13-17C.
Later in the week, they may actually creep to above average.
But, as mentioned, it is likely to turn wetter and windier at the same time so not necessarily the combination we would probably like to see.
In our latest monthly outlook there are some suggestions that warmer and drier weather could become more established during the second week of May.
As with all longer-range forecasts however, “there remains some risk of a wetter westerly or even north-westerly flow bringing cooler conditions at times”.
And it goes on to say that “confidence remains low”.
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