As Macron rolls the dice, France holds its breath
Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, shocked his nation when he dissolved Parliament and called for a snap election after his party was trounced by the far right during European elections. On Sunday, voters head to the polls for the first round of voting as French politics reels.
For insight, my colleague Daniel Slotnik spoke with Roger Cohen, The Timesâs Paris bureau chief.
Whatâs at stake?
Roger: Well, President Macron has taken a huge gamble. The immediate possibility is that the far-right National Rally could win a majority, or even an absolute majority, in the national Parliament. That would represent the end of a postwar absolute taboo in France against the far right attaining the highest offices of government.
Why would Macron call this vote after he was beaten soundly in the E.U. parliamentary elections?
Some think he may be calculating that if the National Rally enters government now, the party will be discredited by the 2027 presidential elections, because itâs much more difficult to govern than to rail from outside the gates of power.
Do you think itâs a sound strategy?
No. I think, first of all, itâs unnecessary. Second of all, itâs extremely high-risk. Third of all, the Olympics are about to start in less than three weeks, and all eyes will be on France. Fourth, it raises the possibility, if the far right does win, of violence in the streets, of protest, of chaos. So the fifth question is, is the president really ready for France to present an image of chaos when the Olympics begin?
Now, none of that may happen. But was it wise? Was it prudent? Was it rational? I donât really think it was.
What do the French people think about this?
The general atmosphere here is one of consternation, bewilderment and tension, now mostly beneath the surface, with fears of violent demonstrations if the far right wins big.
What do you think is likely to happen?
I think the most likely outcome is a National Rally victory â with maybe a 20 percent chance that they win an absolute majority. But more likely theyâll just be by far the biggest party. Macron then faces a Parliament dominated by the National Rally, with a large far-left presence, and with his party and his relative power in Parliament much reduced.
For more on the French elections:
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A NOTE TO OUR READERS
Stepping away and saying goodbye
Today is my last day writing the Asia Pacific morning briefing. On Monday, I will join our International desk to cover breaking news from London.
Writing this newsletter has been a great honor and a delightful challenge. I have learned so much from my colleagues and from you, our loyal readers. Iâm grateful for your insightful, evocative emails. Thank you all for giving us a few minutes of your day, and thank you for engaging with our work. I know you will be in good hands moving forward.
Please reach out with any suggestions, story ideas or even London recommendations. My email is amelia.nierenberg@nytimes.com.
Thank you for your trust, and your readership.
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Daniel E. Slotnik contributed reporting.
Thatâs it for today. Have a lovely weekend and a lovely rest of your year! â Amelia
You can reach our team at briefing@nytimes.com.
