Alan Shearer joins Gary Lineker and Joe Hart for Match of the Day this Saturday at 22:20 BST on BBC One and the BBC Sport website for highlights of six Premier League games.

It does not seem long since we were watching the final of Euro 2024 in Berlin but the Premier League is back this weekend, and I cannot wait for it to get started again.

Manchester City are still the team to beat but there is a lot of transfer business left to be done, and it could make all the difference at the top of the table.

There are so many ifs around what could happen before the transfer window shuts on 30 August but one of them could decide the title race because if Arsenal sign a top striker then I would back them to go on and win the league.

When Mikel Arteta’s side went so close last season, they had the best defence in the top flight, conceding only 29 goals in 38 games, but they have just gone out and signed another quality defender, Riccardo Calafiori.

It is the kind of thing City do, when they have got two fantastic centre-halves then go and bring in a third or fourth, and it means the Gunners will be strong if anything does happen to Gabriel or William Saliba.

They are looking to bring in another midfielder too, and are in talks about signing Spain’s Mikel Merino from Real Sociedad, but it is up front which I feel is the one position they can improve and maybe get that crucial extra edge that means they finish first, not second.

Arteta said his team needed to be ‘almost perfect’ in their run-in to beat City to the title last time, and they almost were. They had one league defeat from the start of 2024, against Aston Villa in April, and that proved to be a killer blow for them.

Clearly they are not far away from being a title-winning team and they definitely have the quality already, but if there is one thing they are missing to become champions, it is a goalscorer.

For City to have won four titles in a row is already remarkable and they are clearly going to take some stopping as they try to make it five.

In the past they have always been able to cope whenever key players leave but it will be interesting to see if they feel they need to replace Julian Alvarez after his £81.5m move to Atletico Madrid.

While I am sure Alvarez did want to start more games, especially the big ones, he still played a huge part in what they achieved last season.

Alvarez started their first 25 Premier League matches of the season, in a run that lasted until late February, and at that stage he had created the most chances and made the joint-most assists of any City player. Only Erling Haaland had scored more league goals for them by then, too.

I know they got a lot of money for Alvarez but his versatility meant he did a variety of jobs for Guardiola, who loves to rotate his players but did not use anyone else as much as him in the league in the first seven months of last season.

City have already brought in Savinho, though, so they may feel their business is done and, let’s face it, there are no obvious weaknesses in their squad.

Haaland missed several weeks of last season through injury and still scored 27 goals to win the Golden Boot. If he stays fit, then he will have a great chance of beating that total this time.

Liverpool finished third last time and I don’t see them dropping out of the Champions League places now Arne Slot is in charge.

Jurgen Klopp is an incredibly tough act to follow but they still have stacks of quality in their squad, and plenty of options in forward positions. They have not signed anyone yet this summer but I’d be amazed if that is still the case come the end of this month.

We will have to wait and see how Slot gets them playing, and at what tempo, and also what happens to some of their established stars.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah are all now into the last year of their contracts and, while Trent is only 25, Van Dijk is 33 and Salah is 32.

I guess we will find out soon if their future is at Anfield, or not.

I feel like last season’s top three will be the same this time, although not necessarily in the same order. After that, there are going to be four or five teams challenging for fourth place.

I am pretty confident Newcastle will be one of them, although the dream is still for them to win a trophy. It’s the same as every year, really, in that I’d love to see them go deep in a domestic cup… and finally win one.

Can they do both? Well, you would never say having no European football is a good thing but the one positive to Eddie Howe’s side not being involved this time is that their workload is a lot less than when they were in the Champions League.

What cost Newcastle last season was their horrific injury list and they cannot afford for the same thing to happen again if they are going to do well, so fewer demands, in terms of playing once not twice a week, should help them.

Not having Nick Pope in goal was a massive miss when he was out for so many months so having him back fit, and hopefully staying fit, is another reason I am hopeful they will be in and around the top end of the table.

With Sandro Tonali back from suspension they are pretty strong in midfield and going forward too, and Haaland and Cole Palmer were the only players to score more Premier League goals than Alexander Isak last season.

It is at the back where they need to strengthen and the same way a new striker could make the difference for Arsenal, a top centre-half would be a real statement signing for Newcastle.

If they did get a deal for Crystal Palace’s Marc Guehi over the line, then that could mean they finish in the top four rather than just below it, but keeping hold of their best players is obviously important too.

It has been a strange summer for Newcastle, with talk that Howe might take the England job, and earlier there was some speculation that one of their star players might be leaving too.

Isak and Bruno Guimaraes appear to be staying put now and I’d be amazed if they or Anthony Gordon left at this stage, especially after the club sold two young players, Elliott Anderson and Yankuba Minteh, to meet the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules.

I would be surprised, and disappointed, if Gordon was sold and hopefully nothing will happen on that front.

As Newcastle found out last season, it is going to be tough for Aston Villa to replicate last season’s top-four finish now they have Champions League football to contend with.

Villa were in the Europa Conference League last season so were used to playing Thursday-Sunday but this is a much bigger ask. They have signed a few players to give their squad more depth but a lot of them are untried in the Premier League.

It might work out because Unai Emery is an excellent coach, and I am sure they will challenge again, but it is hard to see them maintaining their consistency.

Tottenham only missed fourth place by two points last season, and Dominic Solanke could be a very clever signing for them. They needed strengthening up front, and he definitely does that. I am expecting him to do well.

Manchester United need a much bigger improvement if they are going to get closer, after finishing eighth last time.

Erik ten Hag’s side played well in the Community Shield last week, just like they did when they beat Manchester City in the FA Cup final in May, but now they need to produce those performances on a regular basis.

If they are going to find the consistency they have been lacking then they need to show that kind of discipline and desire, as well as the quality we know they have. I am expecting them to be better, but I am not convinced by them yet.

As for Chelsea, well who knows what is happening there. They are a bonkers football club at the moment in terms of their recruitment, and the length of the deals they are handing out.

Their squad is already gigantic and it looks like there are more signings to come – there is talk of a different player joining every day at the moment.

It feels like a really crazy strategy, and I don’t understand what they are trying to do. Maybe they will prove me wrong, but I don’t see it getting them into the top four.

Alan Shearer was speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.