Since Pavel Durov, the Russian-born billionaire and founder of the Telegram messaging app, was arrested on landing in Paris on Saturday evening, there has been more speculation than substance about his fate.

The headline in a Russian newspaper summed up the story: “The arrest (or detention) of ‘Russia’s Zuckerberg’, Pavel Durov, is one of the most important, but mysterious global news stories,” declared Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

True.

Except that “mysterious” is a bit of an understatement.

Why did French police detain him? What charges will he face? Has it anything at all to do with his recent visit to Azerbaijan, where he met (or didn’t meet) Russian President Vladimir Putin?

For two days, reporters have quoted “sources close to the investigation” about the offences Pavel Durov may be charged with (allegedly, from complicity in drug-trafficking to fraud). Telegram put out a statement saying Mr Durov had “nothing to hide”.

On Monday evening, the Paris prosecutor said in a statement that Mr Durov was being held in custody as part of a cyber-criminality investigation.

The statement mentioned 12 different offences under investigation that it said were linked to organised crime.

These included illicit transactions, child pornography, fraud and the refusal to disclose information to authorities, the prosecutor said.

The statement added that Mr Durov’s time in custody had been extended and could now last until Wednesday.

Without going into detail, President Emmanuel Macron posted on social media that he had seen “false information” regarding France following Mr Durov’s arrest, and added: “This is in no way a political decision. It is up to the judges to decide.”

In Moscow, the Kremlin is being cautious.

“We still don’t know what exactly Durov has been accused of,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Monday, in his first comments on Pavel Durov’s detention.

“We haven’t heard any official statements. Before I can say anything at all about this, we need some clarity.”

Clarity is not something of which everyone in Russia feels the need.

On Monday, state TV’s flagship political talk show had plenty to say on the matter.

“All these accusations against Durov sound absurd,” one political analyst in the studio declared. “Accusing him of all the crimes that are committed on his platform is like accusing [France’s] President Macron of all the crimes that happen in France. It’s the same logic.”

Russian newspapers, too, went big on the story. Several dailies expressed concern that Pavel Durov’s arrest could have serious consequences for Russia.

“This blow to Telegram threatens to be a blow to Russia,” wrote Nezavisimaya Gazeta. “With Pavel Durov’s arrest, Western intelligence services could obtain the messenger’s encryption keys.”

“Telegram might become a tool of Nato, if Pavel Durov is forced to obey the French intelligence services,” declared Moskovsky Komsomolets, adding: “Telegram chats contain a huge amount of vitally important, strategic information.”

In April 2018, the Russian authorities began blocking access to Telegram, only to lift the ban in 2020. Today, not only do Russian officials use the messenger, but so does the Russian military, including soldiers fighting in the so-called “Special Military Operation” (Russia’s war in Ukraine).

“If Telegram crashes,” Moskovsky Komsomolets asked today, “how is [our army] going to fight?”

In the West, Pavel Durov’s detention has sparked a debate about free speech.

In Russia, too, presidential human rights ombudsman Tatyana Moskalkova claimed that “the real reason for arresting Pavel Durov was to shut down Telegram, a platform where you can discover the truth about what’s happening in the world. Everyone who strives for free speech protests this.”

Ms Moskalkova made no mention of the Signal messaging app, to which the Russian authorities blocked access earlier this month, or YouTube, access to which has been severely limited now in Russia. Facebook and Instagram have already been blocked here.

And what of those rumours of a Putin-Durov meeting in Baku earlier in August. Was there one?

“No,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied when I asked.

However this mysterious story ends, Moscow will use it to strengthen one of its official narratives: that Russian citizens should beware of the West.

As the popular tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda put it: “For the West, there is no such thing any more as ‘good Russians’.”