Relegation and the race for Europe – what’s to play for in WSL?
The WSL season ends on 10 May
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Published
With just five games of the Women’s Super League season remaining, Chelsea are in the driving seat for a sixth successive title.
The Blues, looking to win their first league title under Sonia Bompastor, find themselves eight points clear at the top.
At the other end of the table, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa are locked in an intense relegation fight.
Meanwhile, Manchester City face an uphill battle to claim the final Champions League spot.
How are things shaping up for the remaining games? Who has the tougher run-in? What do the pundits and managers think?
How do things stand at the top?
There have been no signs of teething problems for Chelsea this season under new boss Bompastor, and the Blues’ dominance of the league – established under predecessor Emma Hayes – has continued.
Unbeaten in the WSL this season, Chelsea have won 47 points from a possible 51 and they are eight clear of closest challengers Arsenal and Manchester United.
With a maximum 15 points available from the remaining five games, the highest Arsenal and United could finish with is 54 points.
That means Chelsea could win the league, at the earliest, on 27 April when they take on United at Leigh Sports Village.
What about the race for Champions League?
The Women’s Champions League format is changing from 2025-26, with the number of teams earning direct qualification expanding from four teams to nine.
The winners of the WSL will directly qualify, along with the champions from the other five top-ranked national associations.
The runners-up of the two top-ranked associations will also be guaranteed direct qualification, along with the previous season’s winners.
The WSL is currently ranked second, external, so as it stands the top two teams will automatically enter the 18-team league format, with the team in third going into the qualifying rounds.
Manchester City, who challenged Chelsea until the final day last season, are all-but out of the title race, while their chances of European football next season are hanging by a thread.
They sit seven points behind rivals United in third. Eight points from the remaining five games would be enough for United to pip their city rivals to European qualification.
Who is at risk of relegation?
After winning the Championship last season, Crystal Palace have struggled to adapt during their first season in England’s top division.
The club looked destined to go straight back down, but a 3-1 win over fellow strugglers Villa earlier this month has given Leif Smerud’s side a fighting chance.
Villa, billed to break into the top four just 18 months ago, have struggled since Carla Ward’s departure and they sit one point above Palace in the danger zone.
“At the moment it’s a concentration thing, it’s mentality, it’s fight. I don’t even think it’s about performance at the moment – it’s about who wants to stay in the league the most,” former Lionesses striker Ellen White said.
“You don’t want to see anybody get relegated but this is just going to be phenomenal to watch these last five games.”
Leicester, meanwhile, will need to be cautious for the remainder of the season, but they will hope their six-point cushion is enough to see them through and need 10 points from their remaining five games to secure safety.
What are the remaining fixtures?
Marc Skinner’s Manchester United face three of the top four teams as they look to pile pressure on Chelsea and keep their Champions League place.
The Manchester derby on the penultimate day of the season could prove key in the race for Europe.
The fixture list has given City interim boss Nick Cushing cause for optimism.
“As the coach you have to analyse where we can potentially make up that ground,” he said. “It starts with us having to win. We have to be in distance with those [final] three games.
“We know the finish Manchester United have so there is an opportunity, in my opinion. Marc is doing an incredible job, but if we are in distance, we have to play them as well, there is an opportunity there.”
It’s a tough run-in for bottom-placed Crystal Palace, who will meet Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City before the season is over.
Villa, meanwhile, only face one top-four side in their five remaining games, while they will have the added bonus of a home crowd for their last game at Villa Park.
Former Arsenal and Manchester City defender Jen Beattie said she is “more worried” for Palace than Villa.
“Based on who they’re about to play, they’re about to play the top teams higher up, whereas Aston Villa, I think they can get more out of their results,” Beattie said.
However, Palace manager Leif Smerud is confident his side can turn things around, despite a difficult fixture list.
“This is not a defeated group. This is not a team that’s given up,” he said.
“I think football is the biggest sport in the world because the underdog always has a chance.”
What does the Opta ‘supercomputer’ suggest?
Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ prediction model has Chelsea as nailed-on favourites to lift the WSL trophy, with the Blues projected as champions in 99.4% of simulations.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have been given a slither of hope, with Opta giving them a 0.5% chance of winning the title.
Manchester City’s bid for European football does not look favourable either, with Cushing’s side predicted to finish outside of the top three in 75.5% of simulations.
According to Opta’s predictions, Amandine Miquel’s Leicester have all but confirmed their stay in the WSL for another season, with only a 0.5% chance of relegation.
The stats also favour Aston Villa and tell a worrying tale for Crystal Palace as they suggest the Eagles have a 76.8% chance of sitting bottom of the table on 10 May.
