Hundreds of long-term prisoners will find out later whether they could be released early to ease an overcrowding crisis in Scotland’s jails.

Around 500 inmates serving short sentences have been freed in recent months, but the prison population is once again heading towards record levels.

The Scottish government will announce this afternoon whether it is pressing ahead with proposals to release long-term prisoners after they’ve completed two-thirds of their sentence.

The move wouldn’t apply to those serving life sentences but it could involve people convicted of serious crimes of violence and sexual offences.

The plans were put out to consultation over the summer, following dire warnings from the government about the pressure on the country’s jails.

Ministers say urgent action is needed to address the rise in prisoner numbers as this nears the previous all time high of 8,420 back in 2012.

On Wednesday, the prison population was 8,305 and it is edging ever upwards. The target operating capacity of Scotland’s jails is 8,007.

The Scottish government says the rise is down to a series of factors – a reduction in the backlog in court cases caused by the pandemic, longer sentences for certain offences and an increase in the prosecution of serious sexual offences.

Prisoners are spending longer on remand waiting to stand trial, and there’s been a rise in convictions over serious and organised crime.

In short, more people are being sent to jail than are leaving.

Ministers say the problem places everyone in prison under pressure, prisoners and staff alike, and reduces the delivery of rehabilitation.

The impact of the emergency release of prisoners serving sentences under four years was limited, with the population returning to where it was within weeks. Some of those freed early were soon back behind bars.

The Scottish government had always ackowledged its impact was likely to be limited.

The proposed release of long term prisoners would involve inmates sentenced to over four years and would be backdated to 2016, the last time the rules were changed.

Under the old system, many long-term prisoners who had not been granted parole would get automatic early release when they had a third of their sentence to go.

The administration, led by then first minister Nicola Sturgeon, changed the rules, stipulating that automatic release would only happen when the prisoner had six months left to serve.

The government now wants to go back to the way things were before 2016.

However, several classes of prisoners would remain exempt.

The change would not apply to the 1,115 prisoners in Scotland’s jails currently serving life, the vast majorty of whom will have been convicted of murder.

It will not cover prisoners given orders for lifelong restriction, a sentence which involves prison then supervision in the community until they die.

Extended sentences which involve jail then a set period of supervision would not quality for automatic early release.

But inevitably, unless ministers change what went out to consultation, hundreds of prisoners who’ve committed serious offences would be entitled to get out of jail early, including those convicted of culpable homicide, child abuse, drug trafficking and causing death by dangerous driving.

Scotland’s prisons currently house 2,037 prisoners serving determinate sentences of four to 10 years, and 465 on sentences of 10 years or more.

The Scottish government says if the new system had been in force in May this year, around 320 prisoners would have been released straight away, with a sustained long-term reduction of up to 4.1%.

Part of its argument is that this could benefit the prisoners and wider society because they’ll serve a third of their sentence under supervision in the community, giving them a greater chance of going straight.

The Justice Secretary Angela Constance talks of changing the balance between jail and supervision, and making more use of measures like home detention curfew.

“Other European countries have lower prison populations and continue to have safe communities,” she says.

“There is much we can learn from other countries, particularly in the use of alternatives to custody.”

The change would require legislation which means the SNP government will require the assistance of other parties to make it happen.

Ministers will be acutely aware of the risks. If a long-term prisoner released early goes on to commit a serious crime, the Scottish government could find itself held partly to blame, every time it happens.